Poland’s State Secretary at the Climate and Environment Ministry Urszula Zielinska urged the EU last Monday (15 January) to “embrace” a plan to slash 90 per cent of the bloc’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.
Warsaw-based think tank Instrat published a report in December which showed that an 80 per cent CO₂ reduction for Poland in the 2040 horizon would be feasible. In this scenario, 84 per cent of the domestic electricity demand would be covered by renewable energy sources (RES).
A future marked by wind and solar
In the report, Instrat modelled two scenarios for the development of renewables – one takes into account the deployment of nuclear power upheld by the new Polish government, while the other shows the consequences of abandoning the nuclear programme.
The nuclear scenario showed that even with the inclusion of nuclear in the mix, 84 per cent is a realistic and economically viable target for the share of renewables in filling the national electricity demand in 2040. Nuclear would cover 14 per cent, while natural gas would cover the remaining energy demand, according to the report.
According to Mr Kubiczek, the Polish electricity system would cope with the variability of production resulting from the increasing role of wind and solar. “The deployment of RES has to be followed by an increase in storage capacity and an increase in demand flexibility due to the electrification of sectors,” he said. “This way we will avoid the absurd 40 per cent loss of energy from wind and solar, as envisioned in the unofficial scenario published by the government in June 2023. Today we are demonstrating that a system based on weather-dependent RES, backed up by infrequently used conventional capacity, can work well.”
Nuclear power can support the transition but will not be its pillar
The non-nuclear scenario in the study was characterised by slightly higher levels of installed RES capacity than the above scenario with nuclear. Taking this into account, Instrat analysts argued that the main driver of decarbonisation in both scenarios is renewables. “Investment in renewables cannot be held back in the hope of rapid development of nuclear power. Our analyses show that both technologies can work well together,” said Mr Kubiczek.
The availability of renewables enables an economy-wide phase-down of fossil fuels
The share of fossil fuel emitting sources was rapidly declining in each of the scenarios analysed as a result of the development of clean alternatives: wind and solar, as well as bioenergy and possibly nuclear power plants. However, coal-fired power plants were also economically competing with natural gas-burning units, Instrat noted in a press release.
“Even the slower development of clean energy, according to the pessimistic Slow Transition scenario, does not necessarily extend the economic viability of coal-fired power generation – the RES gap in this scenario is cheaper to cover with additional gas-fired capacity,” said Michał Smoleń, Head of Energy & Climate programme at Instrat.
However, the think tank argued that lower utilisation of conventional power plants does not translate to their quick and total phase-out. “Winter peak residual demand will remain a challenge for decades to come, especially considering additional demand from electrification of heating,” said an Instrat expert.
According to the think tank, additional market interventions would thus be necessary to ensure the operation of seldom-run reserves: at first, coal and natural gas power plants, with a subsequent transition towards hydrogen and bioenergy.