The Energy Transition 2020 Outlook covers the period through to 2050 and forecasts the energy transition globally and in 10 world regions.
Due to delayed economic growth and behavioural changes, global energy demand is forecast to reduce by 8 per cent in 2020 and will continue to fluctuate 6-8 per cent lower through to 2050 than in an equivalent non-COVID situation. The drop-off in demand will influence consumption for all energy sources: oil and coal are most severely impacted, followed by gas, with renewables least affected.
In a few decades, power systems in most regions will be dominated by solar and wind – boasting CLRs of between 16 and 28 per cent for the core technologies. But not all sectors can be electrified and hydrogen is increasingly being seen as key to decarbonisation targets.
However, despite a rapidly growing share of renewables, the energy transition that DNV GL forecasts is not fast enough to bring the world to within reach of the goals established by the Paris Agreement. The Outlook forecast points towards warming of 2.3°C by the end of this century, a level considered dangerous by the world’s scientific community.
Read the full report here.