The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) published its Summer Supply Outlook 2023 and the accompanying Review of Summer Supply 2022.
Like the previous edition, the ENTSOG Summer Supply Outlook assesses injection levels and the possible evolution of demand, supply and exports from 1 April to 30 September 2023, as well as the dependence of the EU on Russian supply to satisfy the gas demand and to inject in the European gas storages.
The assessment showed that in the cases of minimised Russian gas imports and of a full Russian pipeline supply disruption, reaching 90 per cent storage filling level by end of summer is possible in both cases, enabled by efficient cooperation between the countries. It also showed that Russian pipeline supply disruption would require additional measures to safeguard a 30 per cent target storage level at the end of March 2024.
Finally, different winter demand situations were assessed and the most stressful case of a cold (once in 20 years) winter with a full Russian pipeline supply disruption would require
additional supplies and demand reduction.
ENTSOG found that the gas infrastructure, including new projects commissioned last year, can efficiently reduce the dependence on Russian supply due to enhanced cooperation.
Among new infrastructures that have been commissioned, we find numerous projects from the CEE region, like the new interconnectors between Poland and Lithuania (Gas Interconnection Poland-Lithuania – GIPL), Poland and Slovakia (Poland-Slovakia Gas Interconnection), Greece and Bulgaria (Greece-Bulgaria Gas Interconnector – IGB) as well as Norway to Denmark and from Denmark to Poland (both Baltic Pipe). Actions have also been implemented to improve available capacity between Lithuania and Latvia, France to Germany and Spain to France (under certain conditions) and Romania to Hungary.
“In unprecedented times of energy crisis, new gas infrastructure projects commissioned in the past year have boosted energy security in the EU,” commented Piotr Kuś, ENTSOG General Director. “In addition, storages play an essential role to ensure the security of supply, providing seasonal flexibility needed during the winter season. The additional analysis undertaken by ENTSOG regarding the analysis for Winter 2023/24 provides even further transparency to energy market stakeholders.”
The Outlook assessment also shows that additional LNG supplies, above historically observed import levels, could allow higher targets to be reached for all storage facilities before the end of September 2023. Enhanced capacities, provided by TSOs, would contribute to the increase of import route capacities from the Caspian Area and Norway, as well as boost the possibility for cooperation between Germany and Austria, Belgium, France, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands, resulting in the increase of gas supply flow from West to East.