The world has overreached in its bid to respond to the energy crisis, to the extent that emissions from new gas capacity now threaten the 1.5˚C warming limit, says the analysis of scientific research group, Climate Action Tracker.
The report shows that CO2 emissions from all the under-construction, approved and proposed Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production projects between 2021 and 2050, finding they could add up to around 10 per cent of the remaining global carbon budget for 1.5˚C warming by mid-century.
In 2030, oversupply of LNG could reach 500 megatonnes of LNG, equivalent to almost five times the EU’s 2021 Russian gas imports, and double total global Russian exports. This oversupply of fossil gas could lead to excess emissions of at just under two gigatonnes of CO2 a year in 2030, well above emission levels consistent with the IEA Net Zero by 2050 scenario (2022), the report highlights.
“The energy crisis has taken over the climate crisis, and our analysis shows proposed, approved and under construction LNG far exceeds what’s needed to replace Russian gas,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Action Tracker partner organisation Climate Analytics.
“We’re witnessing a major push for expanded fossil gas LNG production and import capacity across the world – in Europe, Africa, North America, Asia and Australia – which could cause global emissions to breach dangerous levels. Increasing our reliance on fossil gas cannot be the solution to today’s climate and energy crises anywhere,” he concluded.
Meanwhile, the report underlined that with governments focussing on the energy crisis, 2022 has been a year of little action on the climate: almost no updated national climate targets for 2030 and no significant increase in participation in Glasgow initiatives on coal phase out, clean cars and methane. Without strong 2030 action, it will be impossible for governments to reach net zero, the report warns.
