The annual power generation in Ukraine is estimated to fall by more than 22.8 terawatts-hour (TWh) in the next decade due to a combination of macroeconomic factors such as political instability and lack of a coherent national energy policy combined with slowdown in commercial and industrial sectors due to declining population, according to GlobalData, leading data and analytics company.
“Electricity consumption in Ukraine witnessed downward trend in the last decade mainly due to decline in industrial output,” commented Pavan Vyakaranam, Practice Head at GlobalData. “Industrial output during 2015-2020 was on a constant decline in the country, leading to a slowdown in electricity demand from the industrial sector resulting in total electricity consumption reach 127.3 TWh in 2020 from 139.8 TWh in 2011.”
“Over the next decade, demand is expected to decline to 92.7 TWh by 2030 due to a myriad of factors,” he continued. “One of the most prominent is its declining population. During 2020-2030, population declined at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.6 per cent. Slowdown in the commercial and industrial sectors will continue to impact demand in future.”
The country’s political instability and lack of coherent national energy policy make the situation worse, however, the Ukraine electricity market is also impacted by internal changes. For instance, it is highly monopolistic and over regulated.
“Not only has the country’s power market seen turmoil following regulations in 2019 aimed to liberalise the market, but it is also burdened with massive debt,” concluded Mr Vyakaranam. “A huge part of the recent debt accumulation reflects nonpayment of the feed-in tariff to renewable energy producers.”